Ever since visiting Miller Park last year, I’ve been keeping an eye on the Milwaukee Brewers. This is a great young team with a lot of potential, playing in a division where anything could happen. Worth commenting on, however, is what could be the Brewers “Achilles’ heel”: relief pitching.
The Brewers starting rotation has the potential to dominate - each of the five (Capuano, Vargas, Sheets, Suppan and Bush) has potential to throw 200+ innings. These 5 threw an average of 7 strikeouts per outing, and have a collective WHIP of 1.27. One problem, though - the Brewers’ Starting Five averaged under 6 innings per outing in 2006.
That’s not a big problem, if your offense can score runs: with more runs on the board, the starters can leave the game with a bigger lead and a relief squad of Capellan, Turnbow, Wise, Shouse, and Coco have an easier time shutting down any late inning threats.
However, the Brewers scored fewer runs than most teams in the National League last year - in fact, only Pittsburgh and San Diego scored fewer runs. That means that the Brewers relief squad is likely to come into the game with a small - or no - lead. This is the relief squad that had one of the highest ERA’s in the National League last year - so they will likely need a big lead to close out the game with a “W”.
If Coco isn’t in perfect form in 2007, and if Turnbow can’t return to his 2005 form, then it’s likely that the Brewers won’t be the surprise contender that everyone thinks they can be.
And that would be very disappointing - this is an exciting small-market team whose management is making the right moves - a team whose time is due.